Minneapolis under Tornado Watch as Chicago, Milwaukee brace for dangerous severe storms later Thursday

More than 87 million people from the Upper Midwest to the mid-Atlantic will be at risk of severe weather on Thursday. However, chances are higher across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

CHICAGO – A weeklong severe weather threat continues on Thursday as millions of people in major Midwest cities like Minneapolis, Chicago and Milwaukee brace for powerful storms that could pack very large hail, hurricane-force wind gusts and strong tornadoes.

This renewed threat comes after an eerie lull in extreme weather during a month that is usually packed with reports of strong to severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

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A three-hour radar loop showing where showers and thunderstorms are ongoing. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are indicated in yellow. Tornado Warnings are indicated in red, while Tornado Warnings with a confirmed tornado are indicated in purple. Flash Flood Warnings are indicated in green, while Flash Flood Emergencies are indicated in pink.
(FOX Weather)


 

Forecasters have been tracking the possibility of a multiday severe weather event since the weekend, and storm chances in cities from the Plains through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley have been growing ever since.

More than 89 million people from the Upper Midwest to the mid-Atlantic will be at risk of severe weather on Thursday. However, chances are higher across portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

A Tornado Watch is in place for Central Minnesota and West-Central Wisconsin through Thursday evening, including Minneapolis.

The rotation on radar that prompted a Tornado Warning for the Minneapolis metro moved over downtown on Thursday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service. 

This graphic shows the severe weather threat on Thursday, May 15.
(FOX Weather)


 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed more than 23 million people in that region under a Level 3 risk on its 5-point severe thunderstorm risk scale.

This includes cities such as Chicago, Madison and Milwaukee in Wisconsin, St. Paul in Minnesota and Fort Wayne in Indiana.

Elsewhere, more than 37 million people in cities like Minneapolis, Detroit and Indianapolis have been placed in a Level 2 out of 5 threat. Nashville and Memphis in Tennessee are also included in the Level 2 threat.

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This graphic shows the tornado threat on Thursday, May 15.
(FOX Weather)


 

The FOX Forecast Center said that ahead of a cold front, deep moisture from the Gulf and moderate instability in the atmosphere will give way to severe thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours.

Some of those thunderstorms will likely be supercells, and eventually, a broken line of storms will develop by mid-afternoon and move northeastward through the Chicago and Milwaukee metro areas.

The more intense storms will have hail larger than 2 inches, and given the amount of spin in the atmosphere, conditions will be favorable to support tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF-2 or higher).

Severe weather is then expected to sweep into Michigan, and storms will be capable of producing wind gusts higher than 75 mph, along with very large hail.

Elsewhere in the Ohio Valley, severe thunderstorms will be much more scattered in nature.

Friday's severe weather threat increases

This graphic shows the severe weather threat on Friday, May 16.
(FOX Weather)


 

The severe weather threat is continuing to increase as we head into Friday, with more than 6 million people in cities like Bloomington, Indiana, St. Louis, and Louisville, Kentucky, and Clarksville, Tennessee, in a Level 4 out of 5 threat.

A lesser Level 3 out of 5 threat is in place for major cities, including Indianapolis, Nashville, Cincinnati and Knoxville. 

Storms, however, could erupt across a wide swath of the U.S. from Texas to the Northeast.

The SPC has placed more than 47 million people in a Level 2 out of 5 threat on Friday for cities like Dallas, Columbus in Ohio, Memphis, Philadelphia and Baltimore. 

Tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind gusts are all possible with storms that develop on Friday.

Philadelphia, Washington at risk of severe storms on Saturday

This graphic shows the severe weather threat on Saturday, May 17.
(FOX Weather)


 

The multiday severe weather threat will continue on Saturday, and the threat zone includes tens of millions of people along the Interstate 95 corridor on the East Coast.

The SPC placed cities like Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington in a Level 2 out of 5 threat on Saturday. An additional Level 2 threat is in place for areas of the Southern Plains and Arkansas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex in Texas.

New York City and Boston will also be at risk of strong to severe storms, and those cities have been placed in a Level 1 threat. To the south, cities, including Memphis, Oklahoma City, and Atlanta also face this same level of threat.

Long-range models show severe weather threat extending into next week

Computer forecast models suggest the threat of severe weather could extend each day into at least the start of next week.

The FOX Forecast Center said an area of low pressure is expected to form near the Rockies by early Sunday. Storm energy will move into the southern Plains as a warm front lifts northward.

Storms are then expected to fire up east of the dryline – a boundary separating a humid air mass from a much drier air mass – by late Sunday.

By Monday, a more widespread severe weather threat is expected as the system moves deeper into the Plains, with all severe weather hazards possible.

Then, by Tuesday, the FOX Forecast Center said the threat of severe weather could push eastward into the Ohio Valley. However, that’s still several days away, and details will be ironed out as more information is learned.

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